It's Time!

So...guess what happened?

(espn.go.com)
What went wrong?

USC fired Lane Kiffin.

The state of Tennessee rejoices together on this one!

Perhaps you don't fully understand this kind of universal despise toward a person. Good for you. But, allow me to dive into a recap of why most of Tennessee, particularly the northeast, sleeps soundly this week.

Sit back and imagine this scenario, if you would:

...

You are in a relationship. Things are going ok, you are happy. But lately you have started to notice the familiar face of a friend that's always been there. For years you have wondered what if, but you were happy in your relationship, so you ignored it.

Then, one day, a quintuple bypass hits. You are shaken. What are you to do, how do you go on? Who arrives but a knight in shining armor. Or, more accurately, a nice, orange sweater vest. Suddenly you realize what love is. You understand what your grandma meant when she talked of the perfect man, her "General" as she called him. The world as you know it is completely in tune.

(cbssports.com)
What a man, what a man, what a man, what a mighty good man.

As the years pass, you can't imagine anything better. Until one day, you come home to the best surprise of all, a crystal ball. No one has been that excited about a ball since the townspeople in Rodgers and Hammerstein's version of Cinderella. You are completely content and imagine life could not get better.

Then, life gets in the way. You aren't showered with as many gifts, others are getting new crystal, while yours just collects dust. You hit a rough patch, things aren't great. So you work to fix it, but things keep going badly. Finally, after 17 years, you decide to part ways. You are hurt, but you know it's for the best.

You get back on the market, looking for someone to fill the void left after your messy divorce. When in walks a bad boy out of California. He has a record that indicates some success, but also failure. And his name always seems to be tied to criminal activity, although nothing ever seems to stick. You loved the stand up guy you were with, but this guy could talk his way out of a prison full of foreign, deaf guards. He's Marilyn Monroe to your Tommy Ewell, call it your 17-year itch.

(sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
Working the smolder

So, you take a chance. You are swept away. The impact is immediate. You have all the cool kids wanting to come hang out with you. And after about a month, he gets a dog, and names his middle name after your home city. Things could not be going any better. He has said and done all the right things.

Then, things got weird. He starts calling out other guys for things they haven't done. He makes bold statements that you have a hard time agreeing with. But then he surprises you with a gift or two and talks his way out of your concerns. Next thing you know, you are receiving phone calls from the police about your connection with some scandals, including a potential prostitution ring. You realize something is wrong, so you go and have a heart to heart. He talks you back from the ledge and you go out telling your friends it was all a big misunderstanding.

Then, one night, you come home and he left a post-it note on the phone saying he was going back to California. Your vulnerable heart has just been crushed. You are looking at years of probation based off his idiocy, and you are forced to face it alone. You cry and yearn for the good ole days. With your good stable guy, sure, he had put on some weight, but he would never hurt you. Pounds of chocolate and pints of ice cream later, you emerge back into the public eye. You catch a glimpse in a mirror and see a shattered version of your old self staring back at you. Humbled, you realize the people that used to love you are avoiding you. It's all you can do to get dinner with your old friends, let alone a date.

But eventually, you settle with a guy, sure, he wasn't the obvious choice, but there weren't many great suitors. Plus, he is from a great southern family. His surname perks the ears of many of your friends. Sure, he hadn't done anything...yet. But, you were giving him his chance to shine! Plus, he was a lawyer.

(govolsxtra.com)
His hair, though. Immaculate.

That experiment proved that you should never say, "Can it get any worse?" It can always get worse. He had great stories, but he was kind of a jerk. It was never a good fit, and it wasn't until you saw that smug, private-schooled friend of yours and realized you were a little bit jealous that you knew you had reached rock bottom.

...

There you have it. Lane Kiffin is our John Tucker. Though, we root for firing, not death. He went through USC and screwed them over with Reggie Bush. He went to Oakland and angered Al Davis. He came to UT and pissed off the state, then for some inexplicable reason USC took him back.  And what happened? He crashed the car, again.

I never bought into the Lane Kiffin fever at UT. I would like to say that I knew a snake when I saw one, but really I was just really on team Phil. I thought he should have more time. After all, we were an Ainge pick-six from winning the SEC Championship in 2007. Nick Saban could have been the new coach and I would have been cautiously optimistic. But a lot of my friends, including my roommate bought in. And it was a long, hard fall. I can still remember the night he left. We were sitting in the on-campus apartments and he got a text.

 "Kiffin is leaving tonight for USC."

He was literally speechless. He eventually punched a wall and paced angrily before finally forming words. But it was a tough night for him. Fortunately he didn't go mattress burning crazy, although he seriously debated going out there when he heard, haha.

So, here's to Lane Kiffin. The ex that haunted our dreams has finally gotten the karma everyone hoped would come back around. And honestly, I hope he gets a new job and does great. It was never personal, only about him leaving us for USC. Sure, it was his dream job, but you never like the one you were left for. But hey, it didn't work out. We moved on, now they are.

Consider this my closure.

SEC Dominance? (Regular Season)

photo from EPN.com

"The SEC is the most dominant conference in all of college football."

You have heard it. Everyone has heard it. You might even agree with it, or you might vehemently argue it is top heavy. There are wide ranging views on the SEC's supposed "dominance" over college football.

Being from SEC country, I have always assumed they were the best, because that is what I was told, and also because once Tennessee became an average team, they were abused and embarrassed by the rest of the conference (and obviously that's due to the SEC's strength and not to the low quality of football the Vols put out after '07, right....right?). However, recently I read an excerpt from a book that says the SEC Dominance is a myth based on the media hype and college football wanting to scratch the SEC's back (after all, the BCS creator was a former SEC commissioner).

So....I looked into it.

(Sidebar: The internet is full of lies. It also has some great truths. But you can't assume the person writing is telling the truth, so please, double check things. Don't take everything as fact. Do your own due diligence! Eliminate naivety and become an informed member of society, they are becoming fewer and fewer.)

The argument was that the SEC is simply average when taken top to bottom. Also, it argued regular season matchups mean more than bowl games, because apparently the author believes that the SEC gets favoritism shown in bowl matchups, which aren't always as neutral as they are perceived to be. It also started from 1998. A great year, I might add (Go Vols). The beginning of the BCS.

So here are the breakdowns of SEC records against the automatic qualifier conferences (PAC-12, Big Ten, Big-12, ACC, Big East).

(These records are for regular season matchups)

SEC vs:                     (since 1998)

PAC-12: (12-12)
ACC: (50-39)
Big-12: (8-12)
Big Ten: (9-5)
Big East: (16-17)


Well, that certainly isn't overwhelmingly impressive. Overall the SEC is (95-85), winning 52.8% of the games. They have only dominated the Big Ten during the regular season. They have beaten the ACC, but not impressively. And the others are about average, and they actually only have a 40% winning percentage against the Big-12.

However, the SEC hasn't been completely dominant since 1998. While they did win the inaugural BCS Championship (again Go Vols!), they only won two of the first eight National Championships. In fact, no conference won more than two during that span. The SEC and Big-12 won two, and the ACC, Big East, Pac-12 and Big Ten each tallied one win. Each of the AQ conferences won a championship, and no one repeated (although FSU was in the first 3, Miami the next two, Oklahoma the two after that, and USC in the final two starting with OU's last appearance).

I would argue that the first eight years of the BCS were not dominated by the SEC. They certainly had talented teams, but so did a lot of other conferences. Rather, I believe that "SEC Dominance", as we know it, should begin in 2006. It is from this point that the SEC has won seven straight National Championships (including one game featuring two SEC teams).  The second half of the BCS is where the SEC turned up their game.

So, knowing that the SEC has run the table since 2006, what does that do to its record against the other five AQ conferences?

SEC vs:                    (since 2006)

PAC-12: (9-5)
ACC: (31-17)
Big-12: (6-6)
Big Ten: (3-3)
Big East: (10-10)

Immediately you see how dominant they have been over the ACC. And the PAC-12 as well. But the other three maintain even records.

A closer inspection of the Big-12 shows that while (6-6) is literally average, compared to the overall record of (8-12) it is a vast improvement over the 1998-2005 record of (2-6). Similarly, if you dissect the Big Ten record, while they certainly weren't as good as the (6-2) from '98-'05, two of the three losses are attributed to a 2-10 and 4-8 Vanderbilt team. But, still, top to bottom counts. And the Big East always seems to revel in playing the SEC. They get very hyped and often are better* than our preconceived notions give them credit.


While it is hard to swallow for some people, I think it is hard not to concede the SEC's dominance over the last seven years. (59-41) is a 59% win percentage, and if you are flirting with 60 as a whole conference you aren't struggling. Especially when you consider the winning percentage against AQ conferences from 1998-2005 was only 45% (36-44).


(*more on the Big East sleeper in a later post)


Some research notes I took:

The SEC and Pac-12 need to play more. Especially in bowl games. They have played only one bowl game since 1998 (Auburn v. Oregon in the 2010 NC). In fact, before that game, the last time the conferences met in a bowl game was in 1989.

The Mississippi schools have been pretty terrible. Of all the SEC schools, it is the Mississippi group that really kills the record. (1-14) against AQ conferences since 1998, including a paltry (0-9) in the dominance era. And while they must stay in the official SEC records, if you happened to do an unofficial SEC sans Mississippi record since 2006 it would be (59-32) a winning percentage of 64.8%.

Tennessee owns the Big East. With the record being so close to .500, it is interesting to note that UT has compiled a 5-1 record against the Big East. Only LSU (2-1) and South Carolina (1-0) have a winning record against the conference since 1998.

LSU owns the PAC-12. They have gone (7-0) against them since 1998. Meanwhile Tennessee, the only other team to play the conference more than twice, is (1-4).

Only three schools have played Big Ten teams during the regular season. Kentucky went (6-2) against Indiana from '98-'05. And since 2006, Vanderbilt was (0-3) a loss to Michigan and Northwestern twice and Alabama is (3-0) beating Michigan and Penn State twice.

True-OBP hiatus

I must admit defeat....

     While I like how the True OBP stat was going, I was not up for the task. I got a week behind once, and made it up. Then, craziness hit and it was two weeks, then a month and now it is lost. I still am going to try and finish Atlanta's. Since I actually caught them up, but it took a few days, and I don't have the will to spend every hour of my week catching the other 14 teams up.

     Hope, however, may be on the horizon. We are going to look into some auto updating and other fun Excel features and see if that makes it easier. If all goes well, then look for True OBP to come back with a vengeance and in both leagues! But until then, thanks for enjoying my stats.

Braves Weekend

At Friday's game in the rain

My wife and I went on a Braves weekend to Atlanta on the weekend of Cinco de Mayo. The main point from that sentence is how great my wife is. She willingly joined me on a vacation where the focus was baseball. However, the main point of this post is my life accomplishment.

After high school I realized I was never going to be a professional
athlete. So, a lot of my goals on the life checklist were removed
due to reality. I was never going to catch for the Braves, nor would I ever be discovered in a church league softball game and get drafted. However, one baseball related dream remained: catch a ball at a major league game.

Every game I prepared myself on how I would catch it. Mentally grabbing it, but not going crazy by jumping over rows and knocking over popcorn. As I aged, it was less practical to bring a glove, so I had to mentally prep myself to fight through the pain and secure the catch. Always being aware at games by keeping my right hand free.

Don't be this guy. That is the nightmare.
(per headblitz.com)

However, as the years went by, I was never close. Rarely did a ball even come to the section I was sitting. The closest I ever came was at a Tennessee baseball game. I was down the first base line and there was a rocket hit, I stuck my hand up to catch it, but pulled it down at the last second, crumpling under the internal pressure. I think it probably hit someone in the face, I didn't look. My head was hung, too sick with myself for blowing my only chance. The silver lining that I managed to find was that I was saving it for a MLB game. I didn't want a college ball, I wanted the professional Rawlings.

So was the mindset as we went on the Braves weekend. However, rain threatened my dreams. They were calling for record rain that weekend. And, only Sunday had seats with a realistic chance of catching. Upper deck behind the plate, while a cheap seat and a great view, rarely see a good percentage of foul balls. Sunday, however, we were front row in right center field. But the forecast called for rain all weekend, even through Monday. And it was dead on. The rain began Friday and never stopped Saturday, even cancelling the game 5 hours before hand. And Sunday looked to be much of the same. Cloudy and cool. We assumed that "Bark in the Park" was going to leave Turner Field smelling like wet dog. Fortunately, Mother Nature decided to pull a fast one and turn a gloomy forecast into a very hot, sunny day.

My favorite seats at the Ted.

We were sitting in these great seats in the bottom of the seventh. I was finishing up noting in my scorebook that Tim Hudson struck out looking when Andrelton Simmons took a 2-1 pitch and drilled it right at us. As I watched the ball come toward us, I thought, "Cool, we'll be on T.V." Then as it hit the ground, I realized it would clear the fence. I reached out my hand, pen still there, and reached out to make the catch. It hit, ricocheted off the pen and spun in place as I closed my fingers around it. It was a dream come true. No crazy celebration, no dropped ball, just a great catch.

Catch a ball? Check!

It was even better than a foul ball, it was a live ball in play! A ground rule double. Not a lame, discarded strike. My wife laughs at me still because of how childish I looked, just smiling and holding on to the ball. It was a dream come true. Now it sits on my bedside table, watching over me and pumping in more baseball catching dreams.

The hammer is a bully.

My lovely wife!

El Oso Blanco

T-OBP Update

It has been a long few weeks. Been out of town a few times, a long wedding weekend and even a trip to the E.R. So, I ended up getting way behind on the T-OBP updates. I have just finished up the N.L. East, and plan on finishing the rest tomorrow. Then, I'll update the weeks I've missed, and then we'll be back on track! Just in time for a May final month update. Thanks for your patience, and thanks for reading.

N.L. Team T-OBP Rankings

I always do a team leader update every week for T-OBP. However, this is a look at the whole team. Not just the one star. So, the N.L. T-OBP team rankings!

All rankings don't take into account the pitchers (although in the Braves case, that probably lowered their averages, haha.)

1. Rockies: T-OBP: .388 (OBP: .356) Runs scored: 1st

2. Reds: .361 (.332) 2nd

3. Brewers: .358 (.326) 5th

4. Braves: .354 (.329) 9th

5. Dodgers: .352 (.334) 14th

6. Padres: .351 (.327) 10th



Only an asteroid could stop the Rockies
offense!

7. Giants: .349 (.323) 4th

8. Diamondbacks: .348 (.321) 7th

9. Pirates: .345 (.322) 8th

10. Mets: .344 (.316) 3rd

11. Cardinals: .340 (.321) 6th

12. Phillies: .335 (.308) 11th


13. Cubs: .321 (.291) 12th

14. Nats: .318 (.303) 13th

15. Marlins: .315 (.291) 15th


The key to getting on base, is having someone
hit you home. Some teams are doing that (Colorado and Cincy), but others are struggling (Dodgers, Padres).


Watch out for the Dodgers to work out of their slump, and the Padres might pick up too now that Headley is healthy. Some teams just look terrifying to face, Colorado and Cincy. And others, well, they just aren't very good (cough, cough, Miami). Watch how the Nationals do if Bryce Harper's injury is more than a day-to-day diagnosis. He has literally been their offense in April.



"I'm so mad our West rivals are number 1!!!"

April N.L. T-OBP Leaders

As we enter May (where did April go?), I decided to do an overall T-OBP ranking. This list is everyone who is over .400. I am impressed with some of the names that make the list (looking at you Jordan Pacheco). Everyone had to have at least 50 plate appearances to qualify, so about 2 plate appearances per game on average.

Honestly, I am a little surprised there are so few names on here, but it is early and some teams have been real cold. Your month leader? Shin-Soo Choo!

On base half the time? That's nothing compared to
his floating bat trick!

1. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds: T-OBP: .500

No one has had the month that Choo has had. And the Reds management couldn't be happier. Because otherwise they would have Drew Stubbs atop the lineup. And here is how the rest of the group lines up:

2. Carlos Gomez, Brewers: .468

3. Dexter Fowler, Rockies: .451

4. Joey Votto, Reds: .447

5 Bryce Harper, Nationals: .444

T6. David Wright, Mets: .439

The answer to the question who led the Mets in April walks:
Lucas Duda with 20 

T6. Jean Segura, Brewers: .439

8. Lucas Duda, Mets: .436

9. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: .434

10. Ryan Braun, Brewers: .433

11. Michael Young, Phillies: .431

12. Justin Upton, Braves: .429

13. Garrett Jones, Pirates: .424

14. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies: .421

15. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: .420

Why is he smiling? Because his last name is so much fun to say.
Pacheco! Try it, go ahead.

16. Carl Crawford, Dodgers: .417

17. Everth Cabrera, Padres: .414

18. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers: .413

19. Starling Marte, Pirates: .412

T20. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: .406
T20. Jordan Pacheco, Rockies: .406

22. Nick Hundley, Padres: .405

23. Chris Denorfia, Padres: .404

24. Matt Holliday, Cardinals: .402






The Rockies lead all N.L. teams with 5 players in the top 24 players. In other news, they also lead the National League in runs scored. They get them on and knock them in.

The Padres and Dodgers however, can't seem to get the ducks off the pond. The Dodgers have 2 players, their 1 and 3 hitter that make the list, but yet can't get them in to score. They rank second to last (14th) in the N.L. The Padres have 3 guys on in the top 24, but are only 10th in the league in scoring.

And of note: The Giants have no one on the list, yet sport the league's 4th best offense. They don't always get on base, but when they do....they score.

Props to Carlos Gomez for finally figuring the game out. He has been touted for years, but success was always just out of reach. Hopefully he can build off this month and continue all year.


(All images were google searched and found on zimbio)

T-OBP Team Leaders (Week 4)

The week 4 plate appearance cut off is at 50. And this is the first week that all the team leaders have an actual difference in T-OBP! Progress!

1. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds. T-OBP: .517  (OBP: .492)

Choo has been on base in every game
but one this season.

2. David Wright, Mets. .461 (.436)

3. Bryce Harper, Nationals. .460 (.444)

4. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies. .443 (.402)

5. Michael Young, Phillies. .439 (.418)

6. Carlos Gomez, Brewers. .435 (.376)

7. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks. .432 (.396)

8. Justin Upton, Braves. .427 (.398)

9. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers. .426 (.410)

10. Chris Denorfia, Padres. .423 (.372)

11. Garrett Jones, Pirates. .421 (.382)

12. Matt Holliday, Cardinals. .404 (.394)

13. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins. .398 (.361)

14. Nate Schierholtz, Cubs. .395 (.355)

15. Brandon Crawford, Giants. .392 (.361)

Of note: Angel Pagan has been ousted from his throne. Brandon Crawford adds another achievement to his great season. The artist formerly known as Mike has taken the lead in Miami, and I can only assume he stays atop his team. And Carlos Gomez finally gets a little talk, he has had a great month, but Jean Segura has stolen all the other headlines.

Overall N.L. T-OBP Leaders (as of 4/21)

After watching the offensively challenged teams slowly pull down the weekly team rankings. I decided to do an overall N.L. T-OBP leaderboard. Here are the leaders through 4/21/13.


1. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds: T-OBP .534

"High-five for dominating!"

2. Joey Votto, Reds: .533

T3. David Wright, Mets: .481
T3. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: .481

5. Lucas Duda, Mets: .475

6. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers: .474

7. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies: .463

8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers: .459

9. Chris Denorfia, Padres: .456

10. Carl Crawford, Dodgers: .453

11. Travis Snider, Pirates: .449

12. Daniel Murphy, Mets: .444

13. Everth Cabrera, Padres: .442

T14. Jean Segura, Brewers: .438
T14. Bryce Harper, Nationals: .438

Hard to believe that the Reds have their leadoff guy and their 3-hitter with a T-OBP of over .500.  Perhaps even harder to believe is that the Mets have 3 guys in the top-15. Weren't they supposed to struggle this year?

The Mets and Dodgers both have 3 players in the top-15. The Mets have translated that into the 2nd most runs in the N.L. The Dodgers, however, have scored the second fewest. I would venture to guess, if this keeps up, that the Dodgers will break out and score some runs. They have 3 of their top 6 guys getting on base over 45% of the time. With the caliber of hitters they have, it's only a matter of time before those runners score.

T-OBP Leaders (Week 3)

        Running behind again. But worry not! It's a jam packed day for the T-OBP. We're gonna break out the overall leaders and we might even dive into some team work. We'll see. This week's cut off was 40 plate appearances. So, here are your N.L. Week 3 leaders.

1. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds. T-OBP: .543 (OBP: .523)

Probably an odd picture choice, but Courier Press
captured a great photo of him getting plunked.
He is up to 9 HBPs as of 4/21.

T2. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies. .481 (.442)
       David Wright, Mets. .481 (.447)

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers. .474 (.454)

5. Chris Denorfia, Padres. .456 (.404)

6. Travis Snider, Pirates. .449 (.449)

T7. Jean Segura, Brewers. .438 (.406)
      Bryce Harper, Nationals. .438 (.431)

9. Chris Johnson, Braves. .435 (.435)

10. Angel Pagan, Giants. .432 (.350)

11. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks. .425 (.400)

12. Michael Young, Phillies. .417 (.389)

13. Nate Schierholtz, Cubs. .400 (.364)

14. Matt Holliday, Cardinals. .382 (.368)

15. Greg Dobbs, Marlins. .349 (.290)

Of note:
Bryce "The Hoppa!" Harper makes his debut on the rankings. Angel Pagan continues to be the poster child of the T-OBP. And the Marlins suck. Haha, their best guy only on base 35 percent of the time. It isn't a wonder they never score runs. But a shout out to their pitching staff for at least keeping them in games.

T-OBP Leaders (Week 2)

Working and keeping up with these stats is pretty tough. Especially when the weather on the weekend is in the 80s. Haha, I am very glad I decided to only do the National League, though. A few days late for the weekly leaders, but they are here nonetheless. The cutoff for plate appearances was 25. Half of the approximate 50 PAs most starters have reached.  So, without further ado, your Week 2 N.L. team leaders.

1. Joey Votto, Reds. T-OBP: .559 (OBP: .542)

Votto doing his pre-at-bat eye stretches.
No wonder he has such great plate vision.

2. Chris Denorfia, Padres. .514 (.429)

3. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers. .510 (.480)

4. Jean Segura, Brewers. .487 (.462)

5. David Wright, Mets. .469 (.408)

T6. Nate Schierholtz, Cubs. .462 (.410)

      Denard Span, Nationals. .462 (.423)

8. Angel Pagan, Giants. .455 (.352)

9. Justin Upton, Braves. .453 (.415)

10. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies. .435 (.391)

11. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks. .434 (.415)

12. Michael Young, Phillies. .426 (.426)

13. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates. .396 (.333)

14. Greg Dobbs, Marlins. .390 (.300)

15. Matt Holliday, Cardinals. .388 (.388)

Angel Pagan again continues to take full advantage of the T-OBP with a hundred point increase from his OBP. 

Another note. Apparently Joey Votto is the new Barry Bonds. Pitch around him at all costs. He already has over 20 walks! We're not even to 20 games. Nor has he torn the cover off the ball, really. His reputation has scared them off. 

(side note: Be on the lookout for a team breakdown in the near future. Also, an overall T-OBP ranking, not just team leaders.)

Thanks for reading!

T-OBP Week 1 Leaders

Good news! There are some differences! I am not completely wasting my time! Haha. Here's the leaders for each team in the NL. From highest to lowest True OBP. (Players had at least 10 ABs, which ideally is 3 games, or half the games played so far.)

1. Chris Denorfia, Padres. T-OBP: .643 (OBP: .500)

2. Matt Adams, Cardinals. .600 (.600)

T3. Carl Crawford, Dodgers. .545 (.500)
      Gerald Laird, Braves. .545 (.455)

Ladies and gentlemen, your T-OBP leader!

5. Ryan Braun, Brewers. .538 (.538)

6. John Mayberry Jr., Phillies. .533 (.467)

7. Angel Pagan, Giants. .520 (.360)

8. Todd Frazier, Reds. .519 (.519)

T9. Nate Schierholtz, Cubs. .500 (.389)
      David Wright, Mets. .500 (.462)

11. Denard Span, Nationals. .481 (.444)

12. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies. .478 (.478)

13. Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks. .469 (.438)

14. Donovan Solano, Marlins. .458 (.417)

15. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates. .435 (.304)

Bonus points to Angel Pagan, who is taking full advantage of the T-OBP formula and going from "being on base" 1 in 3 at bats, to truly being on base 1 in 2 at bats.

On-base Percentage?

I have always wondered why on-base percentage hates errors and fielder's choices. It seems to me that, if you end up on base, then you should be rewarded. FC's are tough on the team sometimes, but you still might end up on base. So shouldn't the OBP reflect that? And errors are a possibility on every play. So, with that being said, why must you be punished in OBP because the outfielder couldn't catch the fly ball. You put it in play, right? Aren't you standing on second. Should you be there, no. But you are, so there should be a stat that reflects that.

Well, there is. Haha, my goal this year is to track the True OBP for players. As I am only a man, and don't have 24/7 computer access, my initial findings are on the N.L. East, but eventually I hope to get a league-wide stat going.

I don't expect it to be drastically different, maybe a 50 point difference on average, but I think it is interesting. It gives an extra look into the guy that will put the ball in play. Plus it averages in how lucky a player is. Sometimes it's your year and the iffy balls get missed. But so far into the season only two players have a different True OBP from their OBP.

This is Jordany, you should
already know what David Wright looks like.

David Wright and Jordany Valdespin.

Go figure the Mets are the first success of my formula, haha. Jordany hit into a FC, so his real OBP is 0, but his True OBP is 1.000.

David Wright on the other hand, went 1-4 with a walk and reached on an error.
So, his average is .250, his OBP .400, but his True OBP is .600.

These are a few examples so far, and I think they make great sense. In one at-bat, Valdespin got on base, but you would never know by OBP. And David Wright got on 3 times in 5 trips. Regardless of how you get on, I think there should be a stat to show how often a player is actually on base. So, this is my attempt at finding it. Hopefully it plays out well!

2013 Season Preview

I feel the urge to get back into the blogging game. Coincidentally, baseball season has started again! Haha, as I'm sure my blog handle tells you, I love baseball. We did a spring preview a few months ago that started to come out on a friend's blog. However, it stopped happening, so, despite being a few games into the season, here is that preview:

MLB 2013 Spring Preview

Welcome to the best season of the year. Baseball season. It makes everyone happy and even encompasses all the other lesser seasons, like football and NASCAR. Perhaps the best part is Spring Training, your team has made its moves and you can sit and optimistically dream about how everything will go right as you watch your team win the World Series.

So without further ado, my predictions:

AL EAST:

1. New York Yankees

-I’ll have a hard time looking at myself in the mirror tomorrow morning after this pick, but I just don’t see the Blue Jays getting it done for a full season. A lot hinges on how Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera return from injury, and whether A-Rod can return or not, but I like their set up. The staff is better and the bullpen should be deep if Mo can return.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

-While I never liked the Marlins squads of the past, it is hard not to like how Toronto stole Jose Reyes and Emilio Bonifacio to shore up their middle infield. Add that to the power surge that they found in Edwin Encarnacion and the ever present Jose Bautista, and you have quite a lineup. Big question will be Melky Cabrera. Was it all drugs? Or was that just an unfortunate test? They give the East a run though.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

-This team won’t go away. I like the cheap additions of James Loney and Yunel Escobar. This squad goes as Evan Longoria goes, so watch to see if he stays healthy. If he can, they might win the East. Their pitching is young and talented.

4. Baltimore Orioles

-This is less about them and more about the other teams in the league. Perhaps the best overall league in the MLB, I don’t see the Orioles making up enough ground to keep up. They will be a decent team, but decent in a league of good will put you in 4th.

5. Boston Red Sox

-If Baltimore did little, Boston did nothing. They opened up cash and room for the future, but we are in a now prediction and that leaves them in the cellar.

AL CENTRAL:

1. Detroit Tigers

-They return Victor Martinez to the best team in the Central last year. The rotation looks good, should only get better with age. But mainly, I don’t think any other team does enough to knock them off their throne. Barring multiple injuries, you will see them in the playoffs.

2. Cleveland Indians

-New faces, new places. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I think it works for the Indians. They just signed Michael Bourn and basically stole Trevor Bauer from Arizona. However, I see them in second in a mediocre division. Good finish on paper, maybe not so much to the eye test.

3. Chicago White Sox

-Good team, not great. They need to match up their offensive days with their good pitching days.

4. Kansas City Royals

-They are focusing on the present! However, I don’t think it is enough that they can close the gap.

5. Minnesota Twins

-This might be a shock, but I doubt they are a true bottom dweller. More likely, they are the worst of a .500 division. They’ll have flashes, but they lack the talent to make more than a brief run.

AL WEST:

1. L.A. Angels

-They added Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout is returning. By the way, they still have Albert Pujols. This team should be a phenomenal offensive showing. The question will be on the pitching side of things. They added Jason Vargas, but that is really more of a depth move than an ERA lowerer. Still, I like them to take the West.

2. Texas Rangers

-They will be second fiddle. They lose Josh Hamilton and Michael Young. I like their staff and their bullpen, but can their offense click with the subtraction of two big cogs from the wheel? I think it will be enough to best most of the league, but not enough to get back at Josh for leaving.

3.  Oakland A’s

-I like this team. I like their new found offense. I love their staff at home. However, I don’t think it is enough to overtake the West for a full season. They might hang around, but not into the later months.

4. Seattle Mariners

-Another improving team. They locked up King Felix for a while. Hopefully they can bring in some offense to help him. I like the addition of Kendrys Morales, but I liked him better in that Angels lineup.

5. Houston Astros

-They revamped the whole squad. Even changed leagues. However, even if the club clicks and responds perfectly to coaching, the talent is not there. Maybe one day, but not now.

NL EAST:

1. Atlanta Braves

-I’m a homer. So sue me. I see the Uptons playing better together and leaving the head cases behind them. I think Dan Uggla is productive and McCann has a stellar walk year. Heyward and Freeman show why they are young studs and the staff is competent enough to survive until Beachy gives them an All-Star break resurgence. The bullpen should be one of the best.

2. Washington Nationals

-This is a great squad. Ideally, this team is in a race to 100 wins with Atlanta. However, I think they made a mistake last year by shutting down Strasburg. You can’t guarantee season like that, and this year something will go awry.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

-The Phillies are getting old. And they didn’t do themselves any favors by adding Michael Young to the lineup. This staff has the potential to be great, but my guess is the Phillies are draft deadline sellers this season.

4. New York Mets

-The Mets are making productive forward steps. However, they aren’t there yet. But that doesn’t mean they are worse than the Marlins. They might sneak into third depending on how much selling the Phillies do.

5. Miami Marlins

-Oy. What a total firesale. Talk about something everyone saw coming. They are about as fresh faced as the Astros, and will end up about as successful.

NL CENTRAL:

1. Cincinnati Reds

-I like the Stubbs for Choo swap. I wonder if Todd Frazier can fill in all season with Scott Rolen-like production. However, I like the staff. They have been young for a few years now, but have learned on the fly. The big question mark...how well does Chapman make the switch to starter?

2. St. Louis Cardinals

-They always seem to be good. I think they are aging, but I also think they will put on some magical run that defies all logic and sends them to the playoffs. Stupid “infield fly”.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

-Ryan Braun can only do so much. And he misses the contributions of Prince Fielder, who basically is the MVP cushion hitter.

4. Chicago Cubs

-Go Cubs, go Cubs, go! I see them calling up Paul Hoilman and him leading them to a 4th place NL Central finish. Maybe not, but that’d be cool. Anyway, I think this young team can put a few runs together and jump over the Pirates.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

-They had their moments, but never could get it done. This squad seems destined for losing seasons for eternity, or until the Cubs win a World Series (is there a difference? Bazinga).

NL WEST:

1. L.A. Dodgers

-Money equals success, right? Well, in this case I believe it does. If their additions even play decent baseball they should be set. I think Crawford and Gonzalez have great bounce back years, and Greinke pitches better without the stress of being the ace.

2. San Francisco Giants

-I think they fall off and finish a ways behind the Dodgers. A good team that just had things go right the last few years.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

-Despite shipping off a lot of talent and prospects, I think the Arizona squad can be great. Best addition in my opinion is Martin Prado. That is a glue guy. He just makes teams better when he is healthy.

4. Colorado Rockies

-Possibly Todd Helton’s swan song with the team, but sadly, it won’t leave him with any hardware.

5. San Diego Padres

-You could probably swap the Padres and the Rockies. But I doubt Chase Headley is a Padre at the other side of the trade deadline.

WILD CARDS:

AL:

1. Blue Jays

2. Rangers

NL:

1. Nationals

2. Cardinals

PLAYOFFS:

Wildcard:

Cardinals over Nationals

Blue Jays over the Rangers

Divisional Round:

Braves over Cardinals

Dodgers over Reds

Yankees over Blue Jays

Tigers over Angels  

Championship Round:

Braves over Dodgers

Tigers over Yankees

World Series:

Tigers over Braves in 6 games

Awards:

Rookie of the Year:

Travis D’Arnaud- NL

Trevor Bauer- AL

Cy Young:

Clayton Kershaw- NL

Justin Verlander- AL

MVP:

Jason Heyward- NL

Mike Trout- AL

Bold Predictions:

1. Clearly Jason Heyward’s MVP season.

2. Ichiro garners 200 hits.

3. Someone hits 55 homers.

4. Someone reaches 25 wins.

5. The Braves outfield enters October with a very realistic chance to all have a 30-30 year.

MLB 2013 preview

We did a preview night last Tuesday. Here's the Intros and the AL East shakedowns as we have predicted them: Intros and AL East

Be on the lookout for the rest of the preview, coming soon!

Here's the Valentine's Day themed baseball update: My Love Story

Been a while

It has been a while since I last posted anything on the old blogosphere. Hopefully that will pick up. We have a new computer and new drive to update sports. All my new sports articles will be posted on Don't Step on the Chalk but, I will hopefully post other things on here. At the very least I'll update this one with links to the other.