Overall N.L. T-OBP Leaders (as of 4/21)

After watching the offensively challenged teams slowly pull down the weekly team rankings. I decided to do an overall N.L. T-OBP leaderboard. Here are the leaders through 4/21/13.


1. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds: T-OBP .534

"High-five for dominating!"

2. Joey Votto, Reds: .533

T3. David Wright, Mets: .481
T3. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: .481

5. Lucas Duda, Mets: .475

6. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers: .474

7. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies: .463

8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers: .459

9. Chris Denorfia, Padres: .456

10. Carl Crawford, Dodgers: .453

11. Travis Snider, Pirates: .449

12. Daniel Murphy, Mets: .444

13. Everth Cabrera, Padres: .442

T14. Jean Segura, Brewers: .438
T14. Bryce Harper, Nationals: .438

Hard to believe that the Reds have their leadoff guy and their 3-hitter with a T-OBP of over .500.  Perhaps even harder to believe is that the Mets have 3 guys in the top-15. Weren't they supposed to struggle this year?

The Mets and Dodgers both have 3 players in the top-15. The Mets have translated that into the 2nd most runs in the N.L. The Dodgers, however, have scored the second fewest. I would venture to guess, if this keeps up, that the Dodgers will break out and score some runs. They have 3 of their top 6 guys getting on base over 45% of the time. With the caliber of hitters they have, it's only a matter of time before those runners score.

T-OBP Leaders (Week 3)

        Running behind again. But worry not! It's a jam packed day for the T-OBP. We're gonna break out the overall leaders and we might even dive into some team work. We'll see. This week's cut off was 40 plate appearances. So, here are your N.L. Week 3 leaders.

1. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds. T-OBP: .543 (OBP: .523)

Probably an odd picture choice, but Courier Press
captured a great photo of him getting plunked.
He is up to 9 HBPs as of 4/21.

T2. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies. .481 (.442)
       David Wright, Mets. .481 (.447)

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers. .474 (.454)

5. Chris Denorfia, Padres. .456 (.404)

6. Travis Snider, Pirates. .449 (.449)

T7. Jean Segura, Brewers. .438 (.406)
      Bryce Harper, Nationals. .438 (.431)

9. Chris Johnson, Braves. .435 (.435)

10. Angel Pagan, Giants. .432 (.350)

11. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks. .425 (.400)

12. Michael Young, Phillies. .417 (.389)

13. Nate Schierholtz, Cubs. .400 (.364)

14. Matt Holliday, Cardinals. .382 (.368)

15. Greg Dobbs, Marlins. .349 (.290)

Of note:
Bryce "The Hoppa!" Harper makes his debut on the rankings. Angel Pagan continues to be the poster child of the T-OBP. And the Marlins suck. Haha, their best guy only on base 35 percent of the time. It isn't a wonder they never score runs. But a shout out to their pitching staff for at least keeping them in games.

T-OBP Leaders (Week 2)

Working and keeping up with these stats is pretty tough. Especially when the weather on the weekend is in the 80s. Haha, I am very glad I decided to only do the National League, though. A few days late for the weekly leaders, but they are here nonetheless. The cutoff for plate appearances was 25. Half of the approximate 50 PAs most starters have reached.  So, without further ado, your Week 2 N.L. team leaders.

1. Joey Votto, Reds. T-OBP: .559 (OBP: .542)

Votto doing his pre-at-bat eye stretches.
No wonder he has such great plate vision.

2. Chris Denorfia, Padres. .514 (.429)

3. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers. .510 (.480)

4. Jean Segura, Brewers. .487 (.462)

5. David Wright, Mets. .469 (.408)

T6. Nate Schierholtz, Cubs. .462 (.410)

      Denard Span, Nationals. .462 (.423)

8. Angel Pagan, Giants. .455 (.352)

9. Justin Upton, Braves. .453 (.415)

10. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies. .435 (.391)

11. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks. .434 (.415)

12. Michael Young, Phillies. .426 (.426)

13. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates. .396 (.333)

14. Greg Dobbs, Marlins. .390 (.300)

15. Matt Holliday, Cardinals. .388 (.388)

Angel Pagan again continues to take full advantage of the T-OBP with a hundred point increase from his OBP. 

Another note. Apparently Joey Votto is the new Barry Bonds. Pitch around him at all costs. He already has over 20 walks! We're not even to 20 games. Nor has he torn the cover off the ball, really. His reputation has scared them off. 

(side note: Be on the lookout for a team breakdown in the near future. Also, an overall T-OBP ranking, not just team leaders.)

Thanks for reading!

T-OBP Week 1 Leaders

Good news! There are some differences! I am not completely wasting my time! Haha. Here's the leaders for each team in the NL. From highest to lowest True OBP. (Players had at least 10 ABs, which ideally is 3 games, or half the games played so far.)

1. Chris Denorfia, Padres. T-OBP: .643 (OBP: .500)

2. Matt Adams, Cardinals. .600 (.600)

T3. Carl Crawford, Dodgers. .545 (.500)
      Gerald Laird, Braves. .545 (.455)

Ladies and gentlemen, your T-OBP leader!

5. Ryan Braun, Brewers. .538 (.538)

6. John Mayberry Jr., Phillies. .533 (.467)

7. Angel Pagan, Giants. .520 (.360)

8. Todd Frazier, Reds. .519 (.519)

T9. Nate Schierholtz, Cubs. .500 (.389)
      David Wright, Mets. .500 (.462)

11. Denard Span, Nationals. .481 (.444)

12. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies. .478 (.478)

13. Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks. .469 (.438)

14. Donovan Solano, Marlins. .458 (.417)

15. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates. .435 (.304)

Bonus points to Angel Pagan, who is taking full advantage of the T-OBP formula and going from "being on base" 1 in 3 at bats, to truly being on base 1 in 2 at bats.

On-base Percentage?

I have always wondered why on-base percentage hates errors and fielder's choices. It seems to me that, if you end up on base, then you should be rewarded. FC's are tough on the team sometimes, but you still might end up on base. So shouldn't the OBP reflect that? And errors are a possibility on every play. So, with that being said, why must you be punished in OBP because the outfielder couldn't catch the fly ball. You put it in play, right? Aren't you standing on second. Should you be there, no. But you are, so there should be a stat that reflects that.

Well, there is. Haha, my goal this year is to track the True OBP for players. As I am only a man, and don't have 24/7 computer access, my initial findings are on the N.L. East, but eventually I hope to get a league-wide stat going.

I don't expect it to be drastically different, maybe a 50 point difference on average, but I think it is interesting. It gives an extra look into the guy that will put the ball in play. Plus it averages in how lucky a player is. Sometimes it's your year and the iffy balls get missed. But so far into the season only two players have a different True OBP from their OBP.

This is Jordany, you should
already know what David Wright looks like.

David Wright and Jordany Valdespin.

Go figure the Mets are the first success of my formula, haha. Jordany hit into a FC, so his real OBP is 0, but his True OBP is 1.000.

David Wright on the other hand, went 1-4 with a walk and reached on an error.
So, his average is .250, his OBP .400, but his True OBP is .600.

These are a few examples so far, and I think they make great sense. In one at-bat, Valdespin got on base, but you would never know by OBP. And David Wright got on 3 times in 5 trips. Regardless of how you get on, I think there should be a stat to show how often a player is actually on base. So, this is my attempt at finding it. Hopefully it plays out well!

2013 Season Preview

I feel the urge to get back into the blogging game. Coincidentally, baseball season has started again! Haha, as I'm sure my blog handle tells you, I love baseball. We did a spring preview a few months ago that started to come out on a friend's blog. However, it stopped happening, so, despite being a few games into the season, here is that preview:

MLB 2013 Spring Preview

Welcome to the best season of the year. Baseball season. It makes everyone happy and even encompasses all the other lesser seasons, like football and NASCAR. Perhaps the best part is Spring Training, your team has made its moves and you can sit and optimistically dream about how everything will go right as you watch your team win the World Series.

So without further ado, my predictions:

AL EAST:

1. New York Yankees

-I’ll have a hard time looking at myself in the mirror tomorrow morning after this pick, but I just don’t see the Blue Jays getting it done for a full season. A lot hinges on how Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera return from injury, and whether A-Rod can return or not, but I like their set up. The staff is better and the bullpen should be deep if Mo can return.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

-While I never liked the Marlins squads of the past, it is hard not to like how Toronto stole Jose Reyes and Emilio Bonifacio to shore up their middle infield. Add that to the power surge that they found in Edwin Encarnacion and the ever present Jose Bautista, and you have quite a lineup. Big question will be Melky Cabrera. Was it all drugs? Or was that just an unfortunate test? They give the East a run though.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

-This team won’t go away. I like the cheap additions of James Loney and Yunel Escobar. This squad goes as Evan Longoria goes, so watch to see if he stays healthy. If he can, they might win the East. Their pitching is young and talented.

4. Baltimore Orioles

-This is less about them and more about the other teams in the league. Perhaps the best overall league in the MLB, I don’t see the Orioles making up enough ground to keep up. They will be a decent team, but decent in a league of good will put you in 4th.

5. Boston Red Sox

-If Baltimore did little, Boston did nothing. They opened up cash and room for the future, but we are in a now prediction and that leaves them in the cellar.

AL CENTRAL:

1. Detroit Tigers

-They return Victor Martinez to the best team in the Central last year. The rotation looks good, should only get better with age. But mainly, I don’t think any other team does enough to knock them off their throne. Barring multiple injuries, you will see them in the playoffs.

2. Cleveland Indians

-New faces, new places. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I think it works for the Indians. They just signed Michael Bourn and basically stole Trevor Bauer from Arizona. However, I see them in second in a mediocre division. Good finish on paper, maybe not so much to the eye test.

3. Chicago White Sox

-Good team, not great. They need to match up their offensive days with their good pitching days.

4. Kansas City Royals

-They are focusing on the present! However, I don’t think it is enough that they can close the gap.

5. Minnesota Twins

-This might be a shock, but I doubt they are a true bottom dweller. More likely, they are the worst of a .500 division. They’ll have flashes, but they lack the talent to make more than a brief run.

AL WEST:

1. L.A. Angels

-They added Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout is returning. By the way, they still have Albert Pujols. This team should be a phenomenal offensive showing. The question will be on the pitching side of things. They added Jason Vargas, but that is really more of a depth move than an ERA lowerer. Still, I like them to take the West.

2. Texas Rangers

-They will be second fiddle. They lose Josh Hamilton and Michael Young. I like their staff and their bullpen, but can their offense click with the subtraction of two big cogs from the wheel? I think it will be enough to best most of the league, but not enough to get back at Josh for leaving.

3.  Oakland A’s

-I like this team. I like their new found offense. I love their staff at home. However, I don’t think it is enough to overtake the West for a full season. They might hang around, but not into the later months.

4. Seattle Mariners

-Another improving team. They locked up King Felix for a while. Hopefully they can bring in some offense to help him. I like the addition of Kendrys Morales, but I liked him better in that Angels lineup.

5. Houston Astros

-They revamped the whole squad. Even changed leagues. However, even if the club clicks and responds perfectly to coaching, the talent is not there. Maybe one day, but not now.

NL EAST:

1. Atlanta Braves

-I’m a homer. So sue me. I see the Uptons playing better together and leaving the head cases behind them. I think Dan Uggla is productive and McCann has a stellar walk year. Heyward and Freeman show why they are young studs and the staff is competent enough to survive until Beachy gives them an All-Star break resurgence. The bullpen should be one of the best.

2. Washington Nationals

-This is a great squad. Ideally, this team is in a race to 100 wins with Atlanta. However, I think they made a mistake last year by shutting down Strasburg. You can’t guarantee season like that, and this year something will go awry.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

-The Phillies are getting old. And they didn’t do themselves any favors by adding Michael Young to the lineup. This staff has the potential to be great, but my guess is the Phillies are draft deadline sellers this season.

4. New York Mets

-The Mets are making productive forward steps. However, they aren’t there yet. But that doesn’t mean they are worse than the Marlins. They might sneak into third depending on how much selling the Phillies do.

5. Miami Marlins

-Oy. What a total firesale. Talk about something everyone saw coming. They are about as fresh faced as the Astros, and will end up about as successful.

NL CENTRAL:

1. Cincinnati Reds

-I like the Stubbs for Choo swap. I wonder if Todd Frazier can fill in all season with Scott Rolen-like production. However, I like the staff. They have been young for a few years now, but have learned on the fly. The big question mark...how well does Chapman make the switch to starter?

2. St. Louis Cardinals

-They always seem to be good. I think they are aging, but I also think they will put on some magical run that defies all logic and sends them to the playoffs. Stupid “infield fly”.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

-Ryan Braun can only do so much. And he misses the contributions of Prince Fielder, who basically is the MVP cushion hitter.

4. Chicago Cubs

-Go Cubs, go Cubs, go! I see them calling up Paul Hoilman and him leading them to a 4th place NL Central finish. Maybe not, but that’d be cool. Anyway, I think this young team can put a few runs together and jump over the Pirates.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

-They had their moments, but never could get it done. This squad seems destined for losing seasons for eternity, or until the Cubs win a World Series (is there a difference? Bazinga).

NL WEST:

1. L.A. Dodgers

-Money equals success, right? Well, in this case I believe it does. If their additions even play decent baseball they should be set. I think Crawford and Gonzalez have great bounce back years, and Greinke pitches better without the stress of being the ace.

2. San Francisco Giants

-I think they fall off and finish a ways behind the Dodgers. A good team that just had things go right the last few years.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

-Despite shipping off a lot of talent and prospects, I think the Arizona squad can be great. Best addition in my opinion is Martin Prado. That is a glue guy. He just makes teams better when he is healthy.

4. Colorado Rockies

-Possibly Todd Helton’s swan song with the team, but sadly, it won’t leave him with any hardware.

5. San Diego Padres

-You could probably swap the Padres and the Rockies. But I doubt Chase Headley is a Padre at the other side of the trade deadline.

WILD CARDS:

AL:

1. Blue Jays

2. Rangers

NL:

1. Nationals

2. Cardinals

PLAYOFFS:

Wildcard:

Cardinals over Nationals

Blue Jays over the Rangers

Divisional Round:

Braves over Cardinals

Dodgers over Reds

Yankees over Blue Jays

Tigers over Angels  

Championship Round:

Braves over Dodgers

Tigers over Yankees

World Series:

Tigers over Braves in 6 games

Awards:

Rookie of the Year:

Travis D’Arnaud- NL

Trevor Bauer- AL

Cy Young:

Clayton Kershaw- NL

Justin Verlander- AL

MVP:

Jason Heyward- NL

Mike Trout- AL

Bold Predictions:

1. Clearly Jason Heyward’s MVP season.

2. Ichiro garners 200 hits.

3. Someone hits 55 homers.

4. Someone reaches 25 wins.

5. The Braves outfield enters October with a very realistic chance to all have a 30-30 year.