Wednesday, April 3, 2013

On-base Percentage?

I have always wondered why on-base percentage hates errors and fielder's choices. It seems to me that, if you end up on base, then you should be rewarded. FC's are tough on the team sometimes, but you still might end up on base. So shouldn't the OBP reflect that? And errors are a possibility on every play. So, with that being said, why must you be punished in OBP because the outfielder couldn't catch the fly ball. You put it in play, right? Aren't you standing on second. Should you be there, no. But you are, so there should be a stat that reflects that.

Well, there is. Haha, my goal this year is to track the True OBP for players. As I am only a man, and don't have 24/7 computer access, my initial findings are on the N.L. East, but eventually I hope to get a league-wide stat going.

I don't expect it to be drastically different, maybe a 50 point difference on average, but I think it is interesting. It gives an extra look into the guy that will put the ball in play. Plus it averages in how lucky a player is. Sometimes it's your year and the iffy balls get missed. But so far into the season only two players have a different True OBP from their OBP.

This is Jordany, you should
already know what David Wright looks like.
David Wright and Jordany Valdespin.

Go figure the Mets are the first success of my formula, haha. Jordany hit into a FC, so his real OBP is 0, but his True OBP is 1.000.

David Wright on the other hand, went 1-4 with a walk and reached on an error.
So, his average is .250, his OBP .400, but his True OBP is .600.

These are a few examples so far, and I think they make great sense. In one at-bat, Valdespin got on base, but you would never know by OBP. And David Wright got on 3 times in 5 trips. Regardless of how you get on, I think there should be a stat to show how often a player is actually on base. So, this is my attempt at finding it. Hopefully it plays out well!

No comments:

Post a Comment