First let me introduce the two guest bloggers: Sam and Nat Scott. They are brothers by blood, students by trade and bloggers by necessity. Our necessity, but enough chit chat, let's get down to the picks.
We will cover each division winner, wild cards, playoffs, major awards, and end with bold predictions. Here we go.
(I will rank them in order of finish)
1. Boston Red Sox:
Injuries plagued them last year. Assuming they stay decently healthy, the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford only add to their talented line-up. If Ellsbury and Pedroia can stay healthy, there is little room for error in their lineup, and they are sound defensively. You can protect Gonzalez with Youk and Crawford, and if Big Papi gets off to a fast start, who do you pitch to? Their pitching staff's "faults" are two guys who are capable of being very good in Dice-K and Lackey. And their bullpen is very talented. It is their division to lose.
2. New York Yankees:
You aren't supposed to bet against the defending champion, but I don't see the Yankees beating out the Red Sox for the division. While their offense will no doubt be great again, they did not get Cliff Lee and the departure of Andy Pettitte leaves the end of their rotation with question marks. They are taking chances on some guys who were good a few years ago (Mark Prior, Andruw Jones, Freddy Garcia), but I think their offense is too potent to be beaten.
3. Tampa Bay Rays:
Originally I was down on this team, but after talking to my friend Drew, a Rays fan, he shed some positive spin on them. While losing Crawford hurts, their young pitching has been and looks to keep being phenomenal. If their bullpen can hold up, the addition of Manny and Johnny Damon will add leadership and professional bats. Sorry Drew, I just don't see them being better than the Sox or the 'Evil Empire.'
4. Baltimore Orioles:
Harry Truman said the buck stops here. Now we see he meant Baltimore. Buck Showalter has rejuvenated this team, and they have potential. The additions of J.J. Hardy, Vlad, and Mark Reynolds make this lineup very dangerous and if Brian Roberts can stay healthy they could score runs in bunches. Their pitching is suspect, and I don't see them being able to compete week after week with the Yankees or Red Sox, but they are definitely on the right track.
5. Toronto Blue Jays:
They are in Canada. They traded Halladay away. But they can mash the homeruns. Jose Bautista looks to prove his power was legit, and J.P. Arencibia looks to be the next big thing in Toronto, but they just aren't there yet. It doesn't help your division features two of the constantly best in baseball.
Sam: Red Sox
Nat: Yankees
AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers:
2. Chicago White Sox:
My question with this team is if anyone will get on base, or if they will just hit solo homerun after solo homerun. Adam Dunn travels to Chicago from Washington and looks to hit some more HRs on a team that features Paul Konerko, Alex Rios, Hard Hittin' Carlos Quentin, and Alexei Ramirez. Question marks in the pen and a rotation that seems to be aging, and not like George Clooney ages, lead me to believe they fall just shy of the title.
3. Minnesota Twins:
Well played, Mauer. I like their potential. Mauer is a phenomenal hitter and if Morneau gets healthy for a full season they can definitely make a run. I just worry that their ace is Carl Pavano. I'm not sold, even after his great year last year. But, if Liriano and Baker finally pitch to their potential and Duensing and Blackburn simply pitch decent. There is not much that will keep them from making a run. Especially when Joe Nathan is your closer. If they stay healthy and pitch well, don't be surprised if they are up near the top in September.
4. Cleveland Indians:
Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo. That's about all you need to know. Look for Masterson and Carmona to pitch well, and be on the lookout for a Grady Sizemore return later in the year, but other than that, there isn't much hope for a title.
5. Kansas City Royals:
They had Greinke, and he was good one year. . . If you need insight on the Royals look at their outfield: Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur. Combined these guys hit about .250 with 25 HR and 107 RBIs. Comparatively, the Rockies Carlos Gonzalez did that by himself, only he hit almost .300 and 4 more bombs. Perhaps in the future they will contend, maybe one day, but definitely not this year.
Sam: Tigers
Nat: White Sox
AL West:
1. Los Angeles Angels:
This is more due to Cliff Lee's not being in Texas than anything the Angels did. I think their rotation has great potential with Weaver, Haren, Santana and Kazmir. But I like their lineup and with Bobby Abreu primarily at DH they should be able to produce runs.
2. Texas Rangers:
Why anger Michael Young? The guy has moved all over the place to please the team and then you just flaunt him on the market like a piece of meat? That's wrong, but it's Nolan's show now and we'll see what he does with it. Their offense is still sick, the good sick, not the influenza type. But I am not sold on their rotation. A lot of young guys who have been inconsistent and Brandon Webb? A gamble I don't think will pay off. They need Hamilton to stay healthy and play at least 120 games if they want the division.
3. Oakland A's:
Here's a group with a lot of talented young pitching. Dallas Braden threw a perfect game, Trevor Cahill won 18, Gio Gonzalez won 15 and Brett Anderson had an ERA under 3.00. Their bullpen looks good too, especially if Andrew Bailey can get and stay healthy. But even without him they have Fuentes who has been a more than adequate replacement. Unfortunately I don't think they have the offense to keep up with the Angels and Rangers. Hideki Matsui will help out at DH, but they look more like a small-ball NL team (which I like more) than a homerun mashing AL team. (I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a run though.)
4. Seattle Mariners:
Here's my big thing with the Mariners. You have the AL Cy Young winning pitcher in Felix Hernandez and you can only get him 13 wins. He ended the year with a 2.27 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and 232 Ks. When he pitched last you you needed on average 3 runs of support to win, and they failed to do that and left King Felix with a measly 13-12 record. I don't see much else happening with them, though I think Chone Figgins and Ichiro will work out the top of the lineup for more SBs this year. But I don't know if there is enough below to drive them home with consistency. Sam: Rangers
Nat: Angels
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
I just think the Yankees will make it happen. If their pitching is bad, they will make the trade for someone that makes it decent. As much as I'd like to see the 'Evil Empire' miss out, I just don't think it will happen.
Sam: Yankees
Nat: Red Sox
NL East:
1. Atlanta Braves:
The often cited problem for the Braves in the past was they lacked the long-ball (I personally disagree with the HR-or-bust attitude, but we're a minority, stay strong small ball fans, stay strong). However, a surprising in-division trade brings Dan Uggla, who averages 30 HRs a year, to the lineup. Rumors in camp are that Nate McLouth is looking more like his All-Star Pittsburgh-self than the .190-hitting version that played last year and the J-Hey kid looks to improve on a stellar rookie season. If Lowe pitches like he did in September, the combo of him, Hanson, Jurrjens, and Hudson should be more than enough to keep them in games. They have depth in the pitching ranks should injuries strike. The questions lie with Chipper's health, rookie Freddie Freeman's ability to master the learning curve in the bigs and the loss of Billy Wagner. 2. Philadelphia Phillies:
Remember how good their staff was last year? Roy Halladay won the NL Cy Young and threw a perfect game. Well they added Cliff Lee. Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels and Joe Blanton round up one of the best starting five in the game. However, I worry about their health. Raul Ibanez is 38, Chase Utley is already injured with no timetable for return and Jimmy Rollins has struggled with health the last few years. Closer Brad Lidge looks to start the year on the DL and Placido Polanco is 35. If injuries strike it could be detrimental to this offense. The departure of Jayson Werth to Washington and the Utley injury leave Ryan Howard unprotected in the lineup which means he better learn to hit the curveball, because that's all he will see. In a 162-game season, I just don't see every one of these players making it through unscathed.
3. Florida Marlins:
It's officially the Hanley Ramirez show. With Uggla gone he alone is the offensive impact for the Fish. Mike Stanton looks to impact offensively and the addition of Omar Infante brings them a versatile utility man. The question lies in their pitching. Will Josh Johnson be able to repeat his 9 wins pre-All-Star Break? And can he continue it after? They brought in Javier Vazquez, but his velocity has recently gone missing. Their other guys always have hype, but tend to never pan out. I think they will float in NL East limbo, neither great nor terrible.
4. Washington Nationals:
I think the Nationals are getting better. Granted multiple No. 1 picks will do that to a team. But, the additions of Werth and Adam LaRoche finally give Ryan Zimmerman a little help in the lineup. They have a lot of young guys and just traded away Nyjer Morgan, but I think they have enough experience (Livan Hernandez, Pudge, LaRoche) to keep help mature these young guys. Plus the hype surrounding Bryce Harper could be reminiscent of the Strasburg-hype. All that said, they still have a long way to go before getting to the top.
5. New York Mets:
The Mets are having some trouble. With the team up for sale after the Bernie Madoff-money problem, I don't see anything but a mess. They have re-done the front office and manager positions and that always tends to take a toll on a team. But Jason Bay didn't pan out, David Wright looks to be a highlight and if Reyes and Beltran can stay healthy they might prove my projection wrong. But their pitching was highlighted by Mike Pelfrey and a knuckleballer named R.A. Dickey. But that is it. K-Rod had some late-season anger issues and I'm interested to see if he's mentally able to continue his dominance as a closer.
Sam: Phillies
Nat: Braves
NL Central:
1. St. Louis Cardinals:
I have a hard time picking against Albert Pujols. Granted, Adam Wainwright looks to be lost for the year, but the Cardinals always seem to be able to churn out some rookie pitcher who comes in and does great (Jaime Garcia, anyone?). The addition of Lance Berkman adds to an already stacked outfield with Matt Holliday and Colby Rasmus, plus Jon Jay is waiting in the wings. David Freese had a very solid rookie year at 3rd and should be good again this year. I only worry about their bullpen. Ryan Franklin seems to have become more hittable of late, but you never know with closers.
2. Cincinnati Reds:
Joey Votto came out last year and proved that there were other talented first basemen in the NL Central. His career year where he challenged for the Triple Crown led the Reds to the division crown for the first time since 1995. The offense will be there. Rolen, Phillips, Bruce, Stubbs and Jonny Gomes all can crush the ball, but the only reason I have them finishing second is the pitching. They have the potential to be great, but Volquez has the ability to walk 7 as easily as he strikes them out. Leake and Wood were phenomenal last year, but I wonder what more exposure and tape will do when major league hitter see them more and more. Aroldis Chapman supposedly hit 105 on the radar gun this year, but can he locate? 3. Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs. . . Youth has come to them, Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin look to impact the team in a big way this year. If Ramirez can stay healthy he is always deadly at the plate. The addition of Carlos Pena adds power that Derrick Lee once had and lost, but not quite the average. Matt Garza looks to be a good addition to the rotation that is made or broken by Zambrano's ability to pitch. If he pitches well, they could make a run, if not, then they look to get lost in the shuffle.
4. Milwaukee Brewers:
They added Zack Greinke! But he broke ribs playing basketball so he's already on the DL. We'll see how he does on a decent team, but I'm guessing not like the Brewers hope. Fortunately, they have Yovani Gallardo to head the staff. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are still there, so you know they will be able to crush some balls, but I don't think they have made enough moves to get up top quite yet. But watch out for Carlos Gomez, he might just make a name for himself with the CF job all to himself. Especially with Nyjer Morgan pushing him as the backup.
5. Houston Astros:
They don't have Lance Berkman or Roy Oswalt? What is this a joke? It isn't, it's just a more youthful Astros team. Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee look to anchor the offense with the speedy Michael Bourn poised to score a lot of runs. Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson will have to adjust to pitchers changing up their approach now that they have seen what they like. Look for this offense to be able to score, but don't be surprised if they don't. Their staff is young, but Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ and Bud Norris give Astros fans a lot to be excited about.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates have had 18 straight losing seasons. And I don't see anything changing. Look for a lot of hard hitters. Garrett Jones, Lyle Overbay and Jose Tabata all can crush the ball. Plus the Pirates have youth, only two listed starters are 30 or older, Overbay (34) and catcher Chris Snyder (30). Be on the lookout for Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates young third baseman has the ability to absolutely crush balls, but he also can absolutely whiff on some too.
Sam: Brewers
Nat: Cardinals
NL West:
1. San Francisco Giants:
2. Colorado Rockies:
Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez look to lead a young team (with the exception of Todd Helton, but who can argue with that facial hair? Not me.) to a division. With the help of flamethrower Ubaldo Jimenez and the addition of slugger 2B Jose Lopez, the Rockies look to make a run at the division, but I don't think their pitching is well rounded as San Francisco and that will leave them just short of the division.
3. Los Angeles Dogders:
Matt Kemp looks to prove he is one of the best CF's in the game, and Andre Ethier looks to retain his elite status. The Dodgers have the talent and a staff that includes Kershaw, Billingsley, Lilly, Kuroda and Garland. They have the potential to do well, but can new manager Don Mattingly take them to the playoffs. I think they compete, but don't have enough.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks:
Look for the Diamondbacks to stay about the same. Offense power, but suspect bullpen. They were often in the lead late, but the bullpen often blew big leads. Justin Upton and Chris Young are two of the best young outfielders in the game and the late trade for Joe Saunders and the acquisition of Armando Galarraga should give their rotation some consistency. J.J. Putz looks to bring some help to the bullpen as the closer, but they still lack elements needed to win consistently.
5. San Diego Padres:
The loss of Adrian Gonzalez should leave the Padres where everyone thought they would finish in 2010. Stud pitcher Mat Latos is hurt, but they do still have Heath Bell, but what good is an ace closer if you are never winning games (ask Joakim Soria)? Ryan Ludwick is who the Padres have to fall back on, and that just isn't the same.
Sam: Giants
Nat: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Colorado Rockies
This team is notorious for late-season runs. I think with the good team they have this year, the late run will vault them over the Phillies in September for the WC spot.
Sam: Braves
Nat: Phillies
Playoffs:
ALDS: Red Sox over the Angels: Too much offense for the Angels, not a close series.
Tigers over the Yankees: This one is closer, but I think the Tigers pull it out late.
NLDS: Cardinals over the Giants: I think the Giants luck runs out and Albert shows why he's the best in the game at his position.
Braves over the Rockies: The Braves use their upgraded offense and solid pitching to win a close series over the Rockies.
ALCS: Red Sox over Tigers: The Tigers meet a more offensively talented version of their own team and fall relatively easy to the Red Sox.
NLCS: Cardinals over the Braves: The Cards offense is too big for the Braves pitching to completely stop in a 7-game series, the Cards win in a close series.
World Series: Red Sox over Cardinals: Again, the Red Sox prove that winning is easy when you have great pitching, a potent offense and a stingy bullpen. They beat the Cardinals 4-2.
Sam: Red Sox over the Phillies
Nat: Yankees over the Phillies
Awards:
MVP: AL: Adrian Gonzalez: Petco to Fenway, he's already licking his chops.
NL: Albert Pujols: With Gonzalez in the AL, it's all about outplaying Joey Votto, which he does.
Cy Young: AL: Justin Verlander: I think this is his year to finally be truly dominant.
NL: Roy Halladay: Whether the Phillies are good or not, this guy will be. I wouldn't even be surprised if a no-no was thrown.
Rookie of the Year: AL: Jeremy Hellickson: He showed great promise at the end of last year and will build on his experience.
NL: Freddie Freeman: With Heyward there to help him through his rookie season, expect few lapses in a very impressive rookie campaign.
Bold Predictions:
1. Phillies finish closer to 3rd in the NL East than they do to 1st, or the Wildcard
2. Derek Jeter hits close to .325
3. The Baltimore Orioles lead the AL East for most of April/May, before they go cold.
4. Manny hits 30 HRs.
-Mark
(all images were google searched, I don't claim any of them as my own)
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